MODELLING CURRENT AND FUTURE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INVASIVE SILVER-CHEEKED TOADFISH LAGOCEPHALUS SCELERATUS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA
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Keywords

Lagocephalus sceleratus
pufferfish
climate change
species distribution modellings
current and future distribution

How to Cite

Turan, C., & Doğdu, S. A. (2022). MODELLING CURRENT AND FUTURE DISTRIBUTION OF THE INVASIVE SILVER-CHEEKED TOADFISH LAGOCEPHALUS SCELERATUS IN THE MEDITERRANEAN SEA. Pakistan Journal of Marine Sciences, 31(2), 93–111. Retrieved from https://pakjmsuok.com/index.php/pjms/article/view/121

Abstract

The progress in species distribution modeling has brought new insights
into biological invasion management. The present study aims to model the potential
current geographic distribution and future expansion of silver-cheeked toadfish
Lagocephalus sceleratus in the Mediterranean Sea. Coordinates of 98 occurrence records
of L. sceleratus in the Mediterranean were used, and marine climatic variables were
collected from the global databases. Fifteen modeling techniques were tested, and
weighted ensemble averaging of the model replicates was built. AUC values for each
model ranged from 0.61 for rpart to 0.99 for rf, and TSS values varied from 0.41 for mlp
to 0.95 for rf. Based on the cutoff values of TSS and AUC, the seven modelling
algorithms were used for ensemble modeling. The maximum seawater temperature at
minimum depth explained strong biological importance to the current adaptation, and the
salinity contributed the most to the future adaptation. The ensemble forecasting of
suitable habitats of L. sceleratus for current distribution modeling revealed that
L. sceleratus dominantly occurred in the middle and eastern parts of coastal areas of the
Mediterranean. The future distribution was extended to the western part of coastal areas
of the Mediterranean, classifying the high suitability of these areas for its future
distribution. The suitable bioclimatic envelope of L. sceleratus under the present study is
predicted to widen because of climate change. The likely regions of invasion and the
areas at risk for a potential future invasion of L. sceleratus indicate that prompt, effective
practical actions by resource managers should be undertaken to mitigate its impacts and
spread.

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